Climate Change Impacts on Shallow Landslide Risk

Full Title

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Shallow Landslide Risk at Regional Scales

Project Overview

Landslides disrupt aquatic habitats and damage infrastructure (e.g., roads, utilities, dams). Washington Cascade Mountains experience landslides across a wide range of climates, vegetation, and topography, and thus, work done here is relevant to mountain areas across the globe. Landslide hazards in the west are expected to grow with climate change, but to date, geologic landslide research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. There is need for unifying these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide prediction for resource management and climate adaptation strategies. This project will integrate these two lines of thought and potentially transform how regional landslide research is done. The proposed model will develop an empirical static model and integrate it with an innovative numerical dynamic model designed by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from a macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. This work will aid resource management decision making and will be incorporated into K-12, undergraduate, and graduate education. This project is being developed in close collaboration with state and federal agencies, who can put the results to use in land management.

Key Personnel

* Indicates CIG Personnel or CIG Affiliate(s)

  • Erkan Istanbulluoglu (Principal Investigator), University of Washington*
  • Jessica Lundquist, University of Washington*
  • Ronda Strauch, University of Washington*

Key Collaborators

Regina Rochefort, U.S. National Park Service; David Peterson, U.S. Forest Service; LuAnne Thompson and Miriam Bertram, University of Washington; Stephen Slaughter and David Norman, Washington State Department of Natural Resources; Amit Armstrong, U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration


National Science Foundation, Environmental Sustainability Program; Northwest Climate Science Center

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