Avoiding the impacts of climate change: Results from the BRACE study

Upcoming Presentation

The Climate Impacts Group (CIG) and the Program on Climate Change (PCC) are jointly hosting this seminar.

When: February 25th

Time: 2:00-3:00 pm

Location: Marine Sciences Building 123

Title:  Avoiding the impacts of climate change: Results from the BRACE study

Presenter: Dr. Brian ONeill

Abstract: Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary for an informed response to the climate issue. Over the past two years, NCAR’s Climate and Human Systems Project has been carrying out a study on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), which assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. This project is quantifying avoided impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise, and includes contributions from a number of NCAR scientists as well as participants from 15 other institutions. Methodologically, it combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment to examine physical, ecological, and societal impacts, and draws heavily on the use of large initial condition ensembles of CESM in order to better account for internal variability and extreme events and to develop new approaches to pattern scaling techniques. We synthesize preliminary results from the project, which show that the benefits of reduced climate change vary substantially across sectors, and depend importantly on assumptions about future societal conditions.