The 7th Annual Northwest Climate Conference is to be held on November 14-16, 2016 at the Skamania Lodge in Stevenson, WA (conference website). Several members of CIG are set to participate at this conference, see below for more information on their upcoming talks:

Day 1 | Tuesday, November 14th 2016

Day 2 | Wednesday, November 15th 2016

Day 1 | Tuesday, November 14th 2016 

Adaptation Speed Dating: Connecting Climate Scientists and Practitioners to Promote Collaboration and Information Sharing 

Meade Krosby | Special Session | 11:30-12:45 pm

Collaboration and information sharing between scientists and practitioners is critical to ensuring the production of climate science that is useful and used, and of climate-relevant decisions that are informed by science. And yet, there are often limited opportunities for scientists and practitioners to establish the relationships that form the basis of such engagement. To address this need, we will facilitate an Adaptation Speed Dating session designed to foster relationships between scientists and practitioners, paving the way for future interaction and collaboration.

Working in groups of 6-8, session participants will have three minutes to introduce themselves and their work using a common set of prompts (i.e., name, affiliation, and research/management objective); hear from other participants in their sector (e.g., built environment, agriculture, species and ecosystems); and engage in brief discussion before repeating the exercise with a new set of partners.  We propose holding this session during lunch on the first day, so that participants will have the opportunity to follow up on conversations and continue networking with new contacts throughout the conference.

Even brief personal interactions such as those facilitated by this activity can plant the seeds of a working relationship and strengthen regional communities of practice around climate science and practice. It also provides an effective icebreaker among meeting attendees, making for a more engaging and productive conference. Adaptation Speed Dating was well attended and received at last year’s conference, and we hope that it will become a regular feature of the NW Climate Conference.

Large-Scale Climate Influences on Local Extreme Precipitation

Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Guillaume Mauger, and Eric Salathé | Climate 1 | 12:45-2:15 pm

It is well-established that Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are the dominant large-scale atmospheric process that controls the occurrence of heavy precipitation over much of the western US during winter. In ARs, large-scale winds over the North Pacific create localized high moisture flux along the West Coast. This moist air is lifted vertically by coastal and inland topography, triggering the most intense observed precipitation events and historic high river flows, landslides, and stormwater episodes. While recent research has shown that AR events are likely to become more intense as the climate warms, much is still unknown about how local patterns of intense precipitation that accompany ARs might change. This gap in existing knowledge of regional changes limits the ability of communities to formulate actionable responses to the changing risks of floods.

We have developed methods for connecting changes in the large-scale climate to regional risks of heavy precipitation and flooding through a combination of global climate models, regional climate models, and hydrologic models. This approach, however, is too computationally intensive to represent uncertainties in the climate system and be tailored to the needs of specific communities. Thus, we seek methods for a statistical assessment of how local risks will change in the future that can be made directly from global climate model results. This talk will present results of an analysis of global and regional climate model simulations and observations in order to discern the large-scale patterns in the global climate that control the intensity, frequency, and distribution of heavy precipitation at the local scale where communities plan for and respond to flood events. The goal of the study is to use intensive modeling in a few locations to develop methods for assessing the effect of global climate change on flood risks based on statistical analysis of many climate model simulations.

Population Viability and Climate Change: Case Studies from the Pacific Northwest

Andrew Shirk | Plenary Session | 4:25-5:15 pm

There are four potential outcomes that result when climate change shifts the range of an ecosystem’s variability outside the bounds to which a species is adapted. Species may adapt in-place to the new range of variation, be rescued in-place by gene flow from other populations adapted to the new range of variation, shift their distribution to track suitable habitat elsewhere, or become extirpated. In the face of rapid climate change, species face a particularly acute challenge, as the outcomes that avoid extirpation may take many generations. We explore the challenge of species viability in the face of climate change through case studies of several animal species inhabiting Pacific Northwest ecosystems, including the marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus), greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), and American marten (Martes Americana). Specifically, we discuss the role of climate in shaping habitat suitability, the potential for migration barriers to impede climate-induced range shifts, climate change impacts on population demographic and genetic dynamics, and the potential for management actions to mitigate the risk of extirpation. From these case study species, several common themes arise, including a likely increase in climate-related disturbances relative to human modification of the landscape, the prevalence of both natural and man-made migration barriers, and the potentially higher genetic and demographic risks to population viability. Management strategies that include conservation of key habitats and movement corridors, removal or mitigation of key barriers, assisted migration, and assisted gene flow all have the potential to help conserve viable populations of these case study species in a changing climate.

Building Tribal Capacity For Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (poster)

Meade Krosby & Lara Whitely Binder | Poster & Tools Café | 5:30-7:30 pm

The future well-being of tribal communities relies on effectively anticipating and responding to climate impacts on natural and cultural resources. And yet, many tribes have faced difficulties initiating and completing the critical first step of the climate adaptation planning process: an assessment of locally-specific climate risks that accounts for the unique priorities, values, and concerns of individual tribes. We will describe a new project designed to stimulate and support climate change vulnerability assessment activities by Northwest and Great Basin tribes. The primary objectives of the project are to: 1) make the vulnerability assessment process more accessible to tribal staff by providing online guidance materials targeted to tribal needs and capacities; 2) address the demand for decision-relevant climate data by providing downscaled climate data and climate change summaries for tribes; and 3) support tribal staff through the vulnerability assessment process via workshops and webinars to provide training on the use of project resources and datasets, and by staffing a Tribal Climate Technical Support Desk to provide rapid response to questions about the vulnerability assessment process. We will conduct this effort in close consultation with tribal partners, and will work with existing tribal knowledge-sharing networks to connect project products and training opportunities to a broad range of tribal communities. Together, these activities will promote the ability of tribal communities to respond to climate-related threats, enhancing tribal and regional resilience to change.

Changing Streamflow in the Chehalis River Basin: Working to Support Flood Management (poster)

Guillaume Mauger, Se-Yeun Lee, Christina Bandargoda, Yolande Serra, Jason Won | Poster & Tools Café | 5:30-7:30 pm

An intense rain event on December 3^rd, 2007 – later estimated to be a 500-year event – flooded numerous homes in the towns of Centralia and Chehalis, cut off Amtrak service, and led to the closure of I-5. In places, the interstate was under 3m of water. Just 13 months later – on January 7^th, 2009 – again flooding I-5 and causing extensive damage to farms and homes in the area. These events have led to a substantial effort, coordinated by the state of Washington, to assess alternatives for flood management. These have included investigations into changed forest practices, new levees, and a possible dam designed to retain flood waters during large events. Parallel studies have begun evaluating the environmental impacts of each.

Atmospheric River (AR) events are by far the greatest contributors to flood risk. Recent research has shown that ARs are the dominant driver of heavy rain events in the Pacific Northwest (e.g., Ralph et al. 2006, Warner et al. 2012), and that these events are projected to intensify over the course of the 21^st century (e.g., Warner et al. 2015). Furthermore, Salathé et al. (2014), have shown that dynamical downscaling, as opposed to statistical, is needed to adequately capture changes in these events.

This poster describes the first phase of an ongoing effort to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow in the Chehalis basin. In addition into an assessment of the mechanisms associated with heavy rainfall, the project included ample opportunities for model intercomparison: employing both statistical and dynamical downscaling, two hydrologic models (VIC and DHSVM), and new improvements to streamflow routing and bias correction. Products from the work have been designed to support both habitat and flood studies. We will describe the results of the project, ongoing efforts to apply the results, and prospects for future work.

Day 2 | Wednesday, November 15th 2016

The Potential for Climate Change-Driven Migration to the Northwest: What We’ve Learned and What’s Next

Lara Whitely Binder | Human Dimensions | 9-10:30 am 

On June 24, 2016, Portland State University’s College of Urban and Public Affairs and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group convened experts in climate science, population dynamics, and public sector management for a symposium designed to explore the question of climate change-driven migration to the Pacific Northwest and its implications for long-range planning. The symposium included a morning public plenary session designed to cover what the research community can currently say about the potential for climate change-driven migration. The afternoon was a by-invitation- only work session that built on the morning public plenary to identify and discuss specific information and research needs related to the question of climate change-driven migration to the Northwest.  Building off of themes presented at the 2015 Northwest Climate Conference, this presentation will summarize what we learned at the June 2016 symposium about climate change and population migration, and what practitioners and researchers at the symposium identified as key questions and next steps for developing a better understanding of climate change-driven migration to the Northwest.

Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wetlands in the Columbia Plateau

Se-Yeun Lee | Terrestrial Ecosystems | 11-12:30 pm

Wetlands are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world, due largely to their dynamic hydrology, which depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, temperature, evaporation). However, the data to model climate impacts to wetland ecosystems has been hampered historically by a lack of information on their spatial distribution and hydrological dynamics. The goal of this project is to understand historic surface water wetland dynamics (inundation timing and duration) across the Columbia Plateau ecoregion and make hydrologic projections for the wetlands to provide useful information to wetland managers and decision makers for their conservation and/or climate change adaptation planning. We use new remote sensing methods to reconstruct historical wetland hydrology as well as to map wetlands at finer temporal and spatial resolutions than previously available. We then develop the multivariable regression model for each wetland by relating the reconstructed wetland hydrology from the remote sensing methods with water related variables obtained from a hydrologic model. Finally, the site specific model is used to assess impacts of climate change on Columbia Plateau wetlands. Our findings suggest that wetlands in the Columbia Plateau will respond differently depending on the influence of groundwater sources and water storage ability, which varies greatly throughout the region.

Regional Climate Enterprise in the Pacific Northwest: Where Should We Go From Here?

Guillaume Mauger & Kathie Dello | Special Session | 11-12:30 pm 

Efforts to adapt to and assess the impacts of climate change have expanded substantially in recent years. Active institutions include the Climate Science Centers (CSCs), Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), the USDA Hubs, NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA), State Climatologist’s offices, in addition to numerous new staff-level positions among tribes and at the federal, state, and local levels.

While greatly expanding the capacity for new work, this new proliferation has made it challenging to remain abreast of important work and adequately navigate the network of experts and managers. Yet adequate coordination is critical: given limited resources and time, efforts to reduce redundancy and more effectively leverage existing capacity will result in greater progress towards a climate-resilient future.

The purpose of this session is to understand how to make the most of the regional climate enterprise in the Pacific Northwest. This will be accomplished via a collaborative “SWOT” analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats). Participants will be divided into four groups, with each group rotating through all four topics. Groups will have the option of adding new topics to each list and/or prioritizing among those that are already up. Reconvening at the end of the session, the group will discuss key insights and ideas.

The intent is for this session to be repeated on an annual basis at each NWCC conference, building on the insights gained each year.

Improved Climate Monitoring: Maximizing the Bang for Your Buck

Guillaume Mauger, Karin Bumbaco, Greg Hakim, and Phil Mote | Special Session | 12:30-1:45 pm

I will discuss Mauger et al. (2013), in which we used an ensemble kalman filter (similar to what is used in weather forecasting) to identify optimal areas for weather and climate monitoring. I will also discuss some more recent work to refine the approach: comparing from uni-variate to multi-variate optimization, localization techniques, etc.

Reference: Mauger, G. S., Bumbaco, K. A., Hakim, G. J., & Mote, P. W. (2013). Optimal design of a climatological network: beyond practical considerations. Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems, 2(2), 199-212.

Developing a Comprehensive Strategy for Sea Level Rise: Local and State Government Perspectives

Lara Whitely Binder, Bobbak Talebi (WA Dept of Ecology), Andy Haub (City of Olympia), Jessica Engle (King County) | Special Session | 2:45-4:15 pm

Planning for sea level rise is increasingly moving from an abstract need to a real and tangible activity of local and state government. As communities move towards a more systematic approach to planning for sea level rise, those charged with doing the planning are faced with a myriad of questions and possibilities regarding what level of sea level rise to plan for, what information and analysis is needed to make decisions, how to coordinate planning activities with neighboring jurisdictions, and how to communicate those choices to community members.

This session will explore these issues through presentations and discussions focused on the experiences of three entities working at different governance levels and at different places on the planning spectrum:  the City of Olympia (WA), King County (WA), and the Washington State Department of Ecology. The City of Olympia has been engaged in sea level rise work since 1992, with more active assessment of sea level rise impacts and potential response options over the last decade. In 2017, the City will develop a comprehensive sea level rise plan (including specific projects, a funding strategy, and regulatory recommendations) for approval by City Council in 2018. King County, on the other hand, is at the beginning stages of developing a comprehensive sea level rise strategy, which raises another set of questions and needs. Finally, the Department of Ecology is working to update statewide shoreline policy and guidance to comprehensively address sea level rise. Ecology will share what has been learned to date in that effort, and the challenges learned thusfar through its works with local governments to develop and implement response actions.

A key value for session participants is the opportunity to hear from entities working at various points on the “front line” of sea level rise planning about the approaches, questions, and issues they have dealt with, or are currently dealing with, as they engage in a more systematic approach to planning for sea level rise. The session will also include time for audience questions and discussion.