Upcoming Presentation

PhD General Examination

When: Monday, March 14th

Time: 10:00 am

Location: Electrical Engineering Building, Room 303

Title: Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Shallow Landslide Hazards at Regional Scales

Presenter: Ronda Strauch

Abstract: In the Western U.S., landslides are a major mechanism of landscape change. Landslides transport sediment to streams, often contributing to damage of downstream infrastructure.  Site-specific traits (e.g., slope) control the pre-conditioning of hillslopes to failure, while triggering factors (e.g., rainfall) lead to losses in strength initiating landslides.  There is need to unify geologic and hydroclimatic research to provide regional-scale landslide prediction for resource management and climate adaptation strategies.  This dissertation develops a landslide probabilistic model that derives hillslope inherent and dynamic stability driven by hydrologic simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model.  Uncertainty is notable in landslide modeling and explicitly accounted for through Monte Carlo realizations of hillslope “factor-of-safety” from spatially variable parameter distributions used to determine dynamic landslide probability.  Climatology, soil, and topography control the dynamic nature of hillslope stability and empirical information from mapped landslides will be used to further improve the discriminating ability of an integrated model.  This modeling approach will be designed to facilitate prediction of future shallow landslide hazards given projected hydrologic change in recharge driven by global climate models.  Additionally, this dissertation will use the modeling methodology to examine indirect effects from climate change on stability, such as changes in fire regimes. The propagating effects of climate dynamics on geomorphology will be used to estimate risks to infrastructure such as roads from landslide hazards.  A proof-of-concept application will be tested in North Cascade National Park Complex, a rugged region with nearly 2,700 m of vertical relief, covering 2,757 km² in northern Washington State.