Future changes in climate are expected to significantly impact regional species and ecosystems via changes in species distributions and abundances; the productivity, composition and distribution of vegetation communities; and the timing of biological events (e.g., flowering, breeding and migration). Understanding which species and ecosystems are most likely to be vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and why, is a critical first step in addressing potential negative effects and maintaining healthy ecosystems.

While this report identifies vulnerabilities in key areas, it does not define actions that could be taken to address them or prioritize them in any way. This report does prepare the way for such work however, and may be used as the basis for future adaptation and implementation planning by the Tribe.

We worked with the Stillaguamish Tribe’s Natural Resources Department to develop a list of priority species and habitat types and specify their level of priority for assessment. We assessed as many of these species and habitats as possible, according to their level of priority, data availability, and the time available for the assessment. For species for which adequate data were available, we completed a quantitative assessment of climate vulnerability using NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index. For habitats and species lacking sufficient data for a NatureServe Index analysis, we completed a qualitative assessment of climate vulnerability.

We chose the NatureServe Index for our assessment because it is freely available, relatively transparent and replicable, and widely used. These qualities should help facilitate future updates of the assessment as additional information becomes available, as well as comparison of results to other assessments based on the NatureServe Index. The NatureServe Index also highlights the species sensitivities that contribute to vulnerability, offering critical information to guide future adaptation efforts.

To maximize efficiency and allow assessment of as many species as possible, we relied heavily on existing databases of species characteristics and climate sensitivities, rather than gathering information from the primary literature, and drew from a few primary sources (e.g., NatureServe Explorer, Climate Change Sensitivity Database). Detailed methods and data sources are described in the report.

2050s | Moderate Emissions Scenario: None of the species analyzed quantitatively were categorized as Extremely Vulnerable. The Canada lynx was categorized as Highly Vulnerable.

2080s | Moderate Emissions Scenario: 8 out of the 40 animal species analyzed quantitatively were categorized as Extremely Vulnerable: bull trout, steelhead, chinook salmon, coho salmon, Canada lynx, mountain goat, wolverine, and the western pond turtle. 5 species were categorized as Highly Vulnerable: marbled murrelet, northern flying squirrel, Oregon spotted frog, spotted owl, and the western grebe.