Topic: Adaptation Planning, Fish & Wildlife, Vulnerability and Risk Assessments | Region: United States | Year: 2014

Choosing and Using Climate Change Scenarios for Ecological-Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions

  • Amy Snover, UW Climate Impacts Group
  • Nathan Mantua, UW Climate Impacts Group
  • Jeremy Littell, UW Climate Impacts Group
  • Michael A. Alexander, NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory
  • Michelle McClure, NOAA/NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • Janet Nye, Stony Brook University
  • Completed
  • NOAA

We developed a short guide to selecting among climate change scenarios for climate change impacts assessment and planning. The guide provides decision makers with a defensible, objective and tractable approach to scenario selection they can use when integrating climate projections into their work. 

FACT SHEET  JOURNAL ARTICLE 

Photo credit: Robin Gwen Agarwal (CC BY-NC 2.0), via Flickr

Project Background

Increasingly, resource managers and other decision makers are asked to consider the effects of climate change in conservation decisions. However, little information or resources are available to help decision makers use scientific information to predict the effects of climate change on marine and coastal protected species.

The Choosing and Using Fact Sheet was developed as part of a larger project – the NOAA Climate Change and Endangered Species Act Project. The goals of this project were to help decision-makers understand the differences between varying scientific approaches related to understanding the impacts of climate change and, ultimately, to improve their ability to implement the Endangered Species Act in a changing world.

Results and Findings

This fact sheet breaks down three key steps to effectively incorporating climate change science into conservation decisions.

1. Begin with the end in mind: identify drivers of biological sensitivity to climate before focusing on climate change projections,
2. Identify appropriate sources of information for future scenarios of local climate drivers,
3. Objectively select (a subset of) future scenarios for use in impact assessment.

Related Studies and Resources

Journal Article: Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the US Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species. The authors gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge.

Fact Sheet: Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the US Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species. Summarizes the findings of the journal article.

Project Overview. This fact sheet provides an overview of the full project, Understanding and Incorporating the Role of
Climate on Individual Species and Ecosystems to Protect Marine Species: NOAA’s Climate Change and Endangered Species Act Project

Guide to Choosing and Using Sea Level Rise Scenarios. A report and accompanying webinar to support the use of available sea level rise data in coastal planning and decision making.
Journal ArticleFact SheetProject OverviewChoosing & Using Sea Level Rise Scenarios