It’s not uncommon to come across claims in the media or other fora that climate change will cause the Pacific Northwest to experience an exceptional influx of residents fleeing undesirable or inhospitable climate conditions elsewhere in the country and around the world. These claims have raised concern among public service providers, who are uncertain about what shifting migration patterns could mean for demand for public services.

To help address these concerns, the Climate Impacts Group worked with experts across fields to assess this “climate refugee hypothesis” in light of what is known about both the influence of climate change upon migration and the nature of Puget Sound’s existing migration system and to recommend whether regional population forecasts should be updated to include the potential for climate change-driven migration.

We conducted a literature review of existing research on the relationships between climate change and migration to the Puget Sound region. This review outlines potential avenues for future research and analysis to better understand how climate change could affect future migration to western Washington and Oregon.

Informed by the literature review, Portland State University, the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group and 15 other public agencies and communities in Washington and Oregon convened a first-of-its-kind symposium in June 2016. The goal of the symposium was to discuss whether the Pacific Northwest should be planning for more growth as a result of climate change, and if so, to outline the appropriate steps for producing population forecasts informed by climate change-driven migration. The symposium brought together experts in climate change, population dynamics, urban/regional planning and public-sector management to address the question: Do we need to be planning for more growth in Washington and Oregon because of climate change, and if so, what would a systematic framework for developing and updating migration scenarios for use in regional and state population growth and planning forecasts look like?

The literature review suggests that a sudden and dramatic population increase is unlikely to occur, given the nature of anticipated climate impacts in Puget Sound’s migration system and the fact that migration into Puget Sound is driven primarily by economic factors. However, climate change could have some effect on population flows, both directly and indirectly through its economic impacts, and population forecasting currently does not fully account for the effects climate change could have on population flows.

Discussions at the symposium clearly indicated a desire and a need among public sector decision makers to better understand if and how climate change-driven migration may affect existing assumptions about population growth in the region. However, most participants felt it would be premature to make changes to current population forecasting models. In addition to describing these discussions, the symposium summary provides a good synthesis of some of the challenges and opportunities related to understanding this question at a sub-regional scale and recommendations for expanding research and information around climate change-driven migration in the Northwest.

Our sincere thanks to the invited speakers, attendees, and students who generously gave their
time to participate in the symposium discussions, and to the following program sponsors. We
are also grateful to Steve Greenwood, Director of Oregon Solutions, for facilitating the
afternoon program discussion. Without their support, the symposium would not have been
possible:

Beaverton, Oregon
College of Arts and Sciences, University of Washington
College of Urban and Public Affairs, Portland State University
Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Portland State University
King County
Milwaukie, Oregon
Multnomah County, Oregon
Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development
Oregon State University
Population Research Center, Portland State University
Portland, Oregon
Puget Sound Regional Council
UW Center for Studies in Demography & Ecology
Urban @ UW
Washington County, Oregon
Western Center for Metropolitan Extension and Research