Climate Impacts Group

As drought persists across parts of Washington and the Pacific Northwest, a team of scientists have developed an annual assessment to help water managers and agricultural producers prepare for dry conditions and other weather extremes.

The fourth Pacific Northwest Water Year Impacts Assessment, released today, summarizes variations in temperature, precipitation and snowpack across Oregon, Washington and Idaho in 2023. Additionally, it details the impacts of these variations on key sectors such as agriculture and drinking water, and how sectors responded to these impacts. For the first time, a summary of the assessment is also available in Spanish.

The assessment is one product of a collaborative process between water managers and scientists at the Office of the Washington State Climatologist, the Climate Impacts Group, Oregon Climate Service, Idaho Department of Water Resources and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The collaborative process helps inform and refine future drought management by connecting seasonal conditions to sector-specific impacts and response actions.

“For water managers looking for ways to adapt to seasonal variations in the climate, examples of how other water managers across the Pacific Northwest are responding to similar challenges can be informative and motivating,” Climate Impacts Group scientist Crystal Raymond says. “By documenting how seasonal climate conditions translate into impacts to our drinking water, agriculture, fisheries and ecosystems each year, people have more information to anticipate future impacts and inform efforts to prepare for drought and other climate extremes in order to minimize impacts to people and the economy.”

The recently-released assessment covers the impacts of worsening drought during the last water year (October 1, 2022-September 30, 2023) and the rapid snowmelt and heatwave in May 2023. These impacts included reduced water availability and associated voluntary water conservation measures, fisheries closures and reduced hydropower generation. According to the assessment, the majority of survey respondents in agriculture and drinking water reported that they changed their operations in response to the drought. As an example, water managers reported changing their messaging and recommendations regarding water conservation, others needed to use backup or alternative water sources, and agriculture producers altered the timing of irrigation.

The 2023 impacts assessment is well-timed to help inform preparations for the upcoming spring and summer. As of March 13, the statewide average snowpack is 76 percent of normal. The current snowpack is considerably lower than it was last year at this time. Last year, statewide average snowpack was exactly normal (100%). As a result, regions across the state are preparing for new or worsening drought.

“The low snowpack, particularly in the Olympics and the Northern Cascades, is quite concerning considering we’re so close to the end of our snow accumulation season,” said Karin Bumbaco, Interim State Climatologist with the Office of the Washington State Climatologist. “But what we’ve learned from putting together these impacts assessments for the last four water years, is that there is quite a bit of planning and adjusting that can be done to avoid the worst outcomes.”

The weather this spring, forecasted to continue to be warmer and drier than normal, will in part determine if the official drought declaration in Washington will be lengthened or extended to additional regions. An official drought declaration is triggered when water supply is below 75% of normal, and there are hardships resulting from the current droughts’ impact on water supply in a geographic area. Changes in the drought declaration means grant funding would become available to federally recognized Tribes and public entities in additional areas to reduce hardship faced from current drought conditions.

Washington’s Department of Ecology plays a critical role in monitoring conditions and updating drought declarations. Caroline Mellor, statewide drought lead at the Department of Ecology, says  “We are continuing to encourage water users to plan for a drier than normal year. While our water year-to-date numbers may look promising, our state’s water availability is still impacted by the snowpack drought in some watersheds, especially those with a deeper deficit from last year’s drought conditions.” Mellor added that the next few weeks will be important for drought conditions as we move into spring.

Ecology is soliciting feedback on what people are most concerned about this year’s drought. You can take their brief survey on their website.

In the fall, the Climate Impacts Group will provide more opportunities for water managers, agricultural producers and others to provide their insights into how drought and seasonal climate conditions impacted them. Their annual water year survey is typically distributed in early October, and the water year meeting is held in November.

Please contact Karin Bumbao (kbumbaco@uw.edu) or Crystal Raymond (clrfire@uw.edu) if you have any questions on this assessment or comments for future assessments.

Read the assessment