Publications

How to Choose: A Primer For Selecting Sea Level Rise Projections for Washington State

Citation

Raymond, C.L, Faghin, N., Morgan, H., and Roop, H, 2020. How to Choose: A Primer
for Selecting Sea Level Rise Projections for Washington State. A collaboration of
Washington Sea Grant and University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. Prepared for the Washington Coastal Resilience Project.


Abstract

As global sea levels rise — and preparing for these and other consequences of climate change increases in priority — we have seen an increasing demand for detailed local sea level rise projections and for guidance that supports their use in planning, policy development and project design.

Recognizing gaps in existing sea level rise (SLR) information for Washington state, in 2018 a team of scientists developed updated projections for Washington’s coast under the auspices of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project (WCRP). However, using these projections requires careful consideration of certain choices described in this primer when selecting values to use in planning and design.

How to Choose: A Primer for Selecting Sea Level Rise Projections for Washington State will help coastal planners, engineers, climate adaptation specialists and other decision makers understand the various sea level rise data subsets and how to use them to make sound decisions for their particular project and community.

The guide will help users make three critical choices when using sea level rise data: selecting an appropriate time frame, weighing the probabilities of different sea level rise projections against the risk, and choosing whether to consider projections that assume a high or low level of future greenhouse gas emissions.