Publications

Combined Effects of Projected Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Peak River Flows on Water Levels in the Skagit River Floodplain

2016 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Climate: PNW Climate, Hydrology & Water Resources, Sea Level Rise

Hamman, J., Hamlet, A.F., Lee, S.Y., Fuller, R., and Grossman, E.F. 2016. Combined Effects of Projected Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Peak River Flows on Water Levels in the Skagit River Floodplain. Northwest Science 90(1):57-78. http://doi.org/10.3955/046.090.0106

Developing and implementing climate change adaptation options in forest ecosystems: a case study in southwestern Oregon, USA

2016 / Adaptation, Decision Support, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, K.L. Metlen, M.G. Myer, and V.A. Sample. 2016. Developing and implementing climate change adaptation options in forest ecosystems: a case study in southwestern Oregon, USA. Forests 7, 268: https://doi.org/10.3390/f7110268

Effects of drought on U.S. Forests and Rangelands: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis | Fire & Drought

2016 / Hydrology & Water Resources, Wildfire

Littell, J.S., D.L. Peterson, K.L. Riley, Y. Liu, and C.H. Luce. 2016. Fire and drought. Pages 135-154 in J.M. Vose, J.S. Clark, C.H. Luce, and T. Patel-Weynand (eds.), Effects of drought on U.S. Forests and Rangelands: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report WO-GTR-93b.

Historical Climate Trends for Seattle City Light

2016 / Climate: PNW Climate, Hydrology & Water Resources

Mauger, G.S., Bumbaco, K.A., Norheim, R.A., Won, J.S., Bond, N.A. Observed Climate and Hydrologic Trends for Seattle City Light. Report prepared for Seattle City Light. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. https://doi.org/10.7915/CIG3ST7FF

Impacts of Climate Change on Regulated Streamflow, Flood Control, Hydropower Production, and Sediment Discharge in the Skagit River Basin

2016 / Hydrology & Water Resources

Lee, S.Y., Hamlet, A.F., and Grossman, E. 2016. Impacts of Climate Change on Regulated Streamflow, Flood Control, Hydropower Production, and Sediment Discharge in the Skagit River Basin. Northwest Science 90(1) 23-43. https://doi.org/10.3955/046.090.0104

Implementing climate change adaptation in forested regions of the western United States

2016 / Adaptation, Decision Support, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, L.A. Joyce, C.I. Millar, J.M. Rice, and C.W. Swanston. 2016. Implementing climate change adaptation in forested regions of the western United States. Pages 165-178 in V.A. Sample and R.P. Bixler (eds.), Forest Conservation and Management in the Anthropocene. University Press of Colorado, Boulder.

Incorporating Climate Change into the Design of Water Crossing Structures

2016 / Built Environment, Decision Support, Hydrology & Water Resources

Wilhere, G., Atha, J., Quinn, T., Helbrecht, L., Tohver, I. 2016. Incorporating climate change into the design of water crossing structures. Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Habitat Program – Science Division.

Increased water deficit decreases Douglas-fir growth throughout western US forests

2016 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Restaino, C.M., D.L. Peterson, and J.S. Littell. 2016. Increased water deficit decreases Douglas-fir growth throughout western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 113 (34): 9557–9562. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1602384113

Projecting wildfire area burned in the southeastern United States, 2011-2060

2016 / Decision Support, Wildfire

Prestemon, J.P., U. Shankar, A. Xiu, K. Talgo, D. Yang, E. Dixon IV, D. McKenzie, and K.L. Abt. 2016. Projecting wildfire area burned in the southeastern United States, 2011-2060. International Journal of Wildland Fire 25:715-729. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15124

Refined Estimates of Climate Change Affected Hydrology in the Chehalis basin

2016 / Hydrology & Water Resources

Mauger, G.S., S.-Y. Lee, C. Bandaragoda, Y. Serra, J.S. Won, 2016. Refined Estimates of Climate Change Affected Hydrology in the Chehalis basin. Report prepared for Anchor QEA, LLC. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. doi.org/10.7915/CIG53F4MH

Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

2016 / Coastal & Marine Ecosystems, Freshwater Ecosystems, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Krosby, M., Morgan, H. Case, M., Whitely Binder, L. 2016. Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington.

State of Knowledge: Climate Change in Puget Sound

2015 / Special Reports

Mauger, G.S., J.H. Casola, H.A. Morgan, R.L. Strauch, B. Jones, B. Curry, T.M. Busch Isaksen, L. Whitely Binder, M.B. Krosby, and A.K. Snover. 2015. State of Knowledge: Climate Change in Puget Sound. Report prepared for the Puget Sound Partnership and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. https://doi.org/10.7915/CIG93777D

A 350-year reconstruction of the response of south Cascade Glacier to interannual and interdecadal climatic variability

2015 / Climate: PNW Climate, Hydrology & Water Resources

Marcinkowski, K.W. and D.L. Peterson. 2015. A 350-year reconstruction of the response of south Cascade Glacier to interannual and interdecadal climatic variability. Northwest Science 89(1): 14-33.

Adapting transportation to climate change on federal lands in Washington State, U.S.A.

2015 / Adaptation, Built Environment, Decision Support, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Strauch, R.L., C. L. Raymond, R.M. Rochefort, A.F. Hamlet, C. Lauver. 2015. Adapting transportation to climate change on federal lands in Washington State, U.S.A. Climatic Change, 130: 185-199. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1357-7

Changes in winter Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 climate models

2015 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Climate: PNW Climate

Warner, M.D., C.F. Mass, and E.P. Salathé Jr.. 2015. Changes in winter Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 climate models. J. Hydrometeor, 16, 118–128, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0080.1

Climate change and marine vertebrates

2015 / Coastal & Marine Ecosystems

Sydeman, W.J., E. Poloczanska, T.E. Reed, and S.A. Thompson. 2015. Climate change and marine vertebrates. Science 13 (350, no. 6262): 772-777, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac9874

Climate Change Impacts on Tacoma Power Watersheds

2015 / Energy, Hydrology & Water Resources

Lee, S-Y., Mauger, G., and L. Whitely Binder. 2015. Climate Change Impacts on Tacoma Power Watersheds. Report prepared for Tacoma Power by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate change, Migration, and the Puget Sound Region

2015 / Built Environment, Decision Support

Saperstein, A. 2015. Climate Change, Migration, and the Puget Sound Region: What We Know and How We Could Learn More. Report prepared for the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. The Daniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate-induced range overlap among closely related species

2015 / Terrestrial Ecosystems

Krosby, M., Wilsey, C., Duggan, J., Heinrichs, J., McGuire, J., Nogeire, T., Lawler, J., and J. Tewksbury. 2015. Climate-induced range overlap among closely related species. Nature Climate Change 5,883–886(2015), https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2699

Comparing Large-Scale Hydrological Model Predictions with Observed Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: Effects of Climate and Groundwater

2015 / Climate: PNW Climate, Hydrology & Water Resources

Safeeq, M., G.S. Mauger, G.E. Grant, I. Arismendi, A.F. Hamlet, S-Y Lee. 2015. Comparing Large-Scale Hydrological Model Predictions with Observed Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: Effects of Climate and Groundwater. J. Hydrometeor, 15, 2501–2521.

Final Project Report: Regional Modeling for Windstorms and Lightning

2015 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Climate: PNW Climate

Salathé, E.P. Jr., Mauger, G. S., Mass, C. F., Steed R., and B. Dotson. 2015. Final Project Report: Regional Modeling for Windstorms and Lightning. Report prepared for Seattle City Light by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010

2015 / Climate: PNW Climate, Human Health

Isaksen, T.B., M.G. Yost, E.K. Hom, Y. Ren , H. Lyons, R.A. Fenske. 2015. Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010. Rev Environ Health, 30, 51-64.

Present-day and future climate pathways affecting Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound, WA, USA

2015 / Climate: PNW Climate, Coastal & Marine Ecosystems

Moore, S.K., J.A. Johnstone, N.S. Banas, and E.P. Salathé Jr. 2015. Present-day and future climate pathways affecting Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound, WA, USA. Harmful Algae 48: 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2015.06.008

Projecting the hydrologic impacts of climate change on montane wetlands

2015 / Climate: PNW Climate, Freshwater Ecosystems

Lee, S-Y, M.E. Ryan, A.F. Hamlet, W.J. Palen, J.J. Lawler, and M. Halabisky. 2015. Projecting the hydrologic impacts of climate change on montane wetlands. PLoS ONE 10(11):e0142960, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142960

Riparian Climate-Corridors: Analysis Extension, Improvements, and Validation

2015 / Adaptation, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Krosby, M., R. Norheim, and D. M. Theobald. 2015. Riparian Climate-Corridors: Analysis Extension, Improvements, and Validation. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Agreed but not preferred: Expert views on taboo options for biodiversity conservation, given climate change

2014 / Terrestrial Ecosystems

Hagerman, S.M., Satterfield, T. 2014. Agreed but not preferred: Expert views on taboo options for biodiversity conservation, given climate change. Ecological Applications 24(3): 548-559. https://doi.org/10.1890/13-0400.1

Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous western USA

2014 / Climate: PNW Climate, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Stavros, E.N., Abatzoglou, J., Larkin, N., McKenzie, D., Steel, E.A. 2014. Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous western USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23(7): 899-914, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13169

Climate Change and United States Forests

2014 / Adaptation, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Peterson, D.L., Vose, J.M., Patel-Weynand, T. 2014. Climate Change and United States Forests. Published by Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. 261 p.

Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems

2014 / Coastal & Marine Ecosystems

Syndeman, W.J., García-Reyes, M., Schoelam, D.S., Rykaczewski, R.R., Thompson, S.A., Black, B.A., Bograd, S.J. 2014. Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems. Science 4 July 2014: 345 (6192), 77-80. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1251635

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region, Washington

2014 / Adaptation, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Raymond, C.L., Peterson, D.L., Rochefort, R.M. 2014. Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the North Cascades Region, Washington. General Technical Report, PNW-GTR-892. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 279 p.

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Flooding in the Lower Snohomish River Basin

2014 / Decision Support, Hydrology & Water Resources

Mauger, G. S., and S.-Y. Lee, 2014. Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Flooding in the Lower Snohomish River Basin. Report prepared for The Nature Conservancy by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate, fire size, and biophysical setting control fire severity and spatial pattern in the northern Cascade Range, USA

2014 / Climate: PNW Climate, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Cansler, C.A., and D. McKenzie. 2014. Climate, fire size, and biophysical setting control fire severity and spatial pattern in the northern Cascade Range, USA. Ecological Applications 24:1037–1056, https://doi.org/10.1890/13-1077.1

Estimates of Twenty-first Century flood risk in the Pacific Northwest based on regional scale climate model simulations

2014 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Hydrology & Water Resources

Salathé, E.P., Hamlet, A.F., Mass, C.F., Lee, S-Y., Stumbaugh, M., Steed, R. 2014. Estimates of Twenty-first Century flood risk in the Pacific Northwest based on regional scale climate model simulations. J. Hydrometeorology 15(5): 1881-1899, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0137.1

Impacts of 21st century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America

2014 / Climate: PNW Climate, Hydrology & Water Resources

Tohver, I., Hamlet, A.F., Lee, S-Y. 2014. Impacts of 21st century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Journal of the American Water Works Association. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1111/jawr.12199

Impacts of climate change on milk production in the United States

2014 / Agriculture

Mauger, G.S., Bauman, Y, Nennich, T., and Salathé, E.P. 2014. Impacts of climate change on milk production in the United States. Professional Geographer, https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2014.921017

Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States

2014 / Climate: PNW Climate, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Stavros, E.N., Abatzoglou, J., McKenzie, D., Larkin, N. 2014. Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States. Climatic Change 126(3-4): 455-468. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6

Riparian Climate-corridors: Identifying Priority Areas for Conservation in a Changing Climate

2014 / Adaptation, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Krosby, M., Norheim, R., Theobald, D. M., and B. H. McRae. 2014. Riparian Climate-corridors: Identifying Priority Areas for Conservation in a Changing Climate. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

The climate-wildfire-air quality system: interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales

2014 / Human Health, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Stavros, E.N., McKenzie, D., Larkin, N. 2014. The climate-wildfire-air quality system: interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. WIREs Climate Change 5: 719-733. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.303

Third National Climate Assessment Chapter 21: Northwest

2014 / Climate: PNW Climate, Special Reports

Mote, P.W., Snover, A.K., Capalbo, S.M., Eigenbrode, S., Glick, P., Littell, J.S., Raymondi, R., Reeder, S. 2014. Northwest. Chapter 21 in Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, J. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G.W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 16-1-nn.

Uncertainty and Extreme Events in Future Climate and Hydrologic Projections for the Pacific Northwest: Providing a Basis for Vulnerability and Core/Corridor Assessments

2014 / Freshwater Ecosystems, Hydrology & Water Resources

Littell, J.S., Mauger, G.S., Salathé, E.P., Hamlet, A.F., Lee, S-Y., Stumbaugh, M., Elsner, M.M., Norheim, R.A., Lutz, E.R., Mantua, N.J. 2014. Uncertainty and Extreme Events in Future Climate and Hydrologic Projections for the Pacific Northwest: Providing a Basis for Vulnerability and Core/Corridor Assessments. Final report for Department of the Interior Pacific Northwest Climate Science Center. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

2014 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Hydrology & Water Resources

Liu, M., Rajagopalan, K., Chung, S.H., Jiang, X., Harris, R., Nergui, T., Guenther, A., Miller, C., Reyes, J., Tague, C., Choate, J., Salathé, E.P., Stöckle, C., Adam, J.C. 2014. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?. Biogeosciences 11: 2601-2622. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2601-2014

An Evaluation of the Utility of Fine-scale, Downscaled Climate Projections for Connectivity Conservation Planning in Washington State

2013 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Washington Wildlife Connectivity Working Group. 2013. An Evaluation of the Utility of Fine-scale, Downscaled Climate Projections for Connectivity Conservation Planning in Washington State. Washington Departments of Fish and Wildlife, and Transportation, Olympia, WA. https://doi.org/10.6069/h43hcba2

An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, methods, and summary of key results

2013 / Climate: PNW Climate, Hydrology & Water Resources

Hamlet, A.F., Elsner, M.M., Mauger, G.S., Lee, S-Y., Tohver, I., Norheim, R.A. 2013. An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, methods, and summary of key results. Atmosphere-Ocean 51(4):392-415. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2013.819555

Changes in 20th century extreme temperature and precipitation over the western United States from regional climate model simulations and observations

2013 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Climate: PNW Climate

Dulière, V., Zhang, Y., Salathé, E.P. 2013. Changes in 20th century extreme temperature and precipitation over the western United States from regional climate model simulations and observations. Journal of Climate 26(21):8556-8575. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00818.1

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological impacts assessments and conservation decisions

2013 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Decision Support

Snover, A.K., Mantua, N.J., Littell, J.S., Alexander, M.A., McClure, M., Nye, J. 2013. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological impacts assessments and conservation decisions. Conservation Biology 27(6): 1147-1157. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12163

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Washington State: Technical Summaries for Decision Makers

2013 / Adaptation, Special Reports

Snover, A.K., Mauger, G.S., Whitely Binder, L.C., Krosby, M., Tohver, I. 2013. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Washington State: Technical Summaries for Decision Makers. State of Knowledge Report prepared for the Washington State Department of Ecology. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities

2013 / Climate: PNW Climate, Special Reports

Dalton, M., Mote, P.W., Snover, A.K. 2013. Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities. Washington, D.C.: Island Press. 271 pp.

Coasts: Complex changes affecting the Northwest’s diverse shorelines

2013 / Adaptation, Coastal & Marine Ecosystems

Reeder, W.S., Ruggiero, P., Shafer, S.L., Snover, A.K., Houston, L.L., Glick, P., Newton, J.A., Capalbo, S.M. 2013. Coasts: Complex changes affecting the Northwest’s diverse shorelines. Chapter 4, pp 67-109. In M.M. Dalton, P.W. Mote, and A.K. Snover (eds.) Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities, Washington D.C.: Island Press.

Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics

2013 / Terrestrial Ecosystems

Littell, J.S., Hicke, J.A., Shafer, S.L., Capalbo, S.M., Houston, L.L., Glick, P. 2013. Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics. Chapter 5, pp 110-148. In M.M. Dalton, P.W. Mote, and A.K. Snover (eds.) Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities, Washington D.C.: Island Press.

Incorporating climate science in applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for aquatic species

2013 / Coastal & Marine Ecosystems, Decision Support

McClure, M., Alexander, M.A., Borggaard, D., Boughton, D., Crozier, L.G., Griffis, R., Jorgensen, J.C., Lindley, S.T., Nye, J., Rowland, M.J., Seney, E.E., Snover, A.K., Toole, C., van Houtan, K. 2013. Incorporating climate science in applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for aquatic species. Conservation Biology 27(6): 1222-1233. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12166

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