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330 publications listed under Climate: Dynamics and Modeling

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

McKenzie, D., and J.S. Littell. 2017. Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western USA? Ecological Applications 27:26-36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.1420

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Combined Effects of Projected Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Peak River Flows on Water Levels in the Skagit River Floodplain

Hamman, J., Hamlet, A.F., Lee, S.Y., Fuller, R., and Grossman, E.F. 2016. Combined Effects of Projected Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Peak River Flows on Water Levels in the Skagit River Floodplain. Northwest Science 90(1):57-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.3955/046.090.0106

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Increased water deficit decreases Douglas-fir growth throughout western US forests

Restaino, C.M., D.L. Peterson, and J.S. Littell. 2016. Increased water deficit decreases Douglas-fir growth throughout western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 113 (34): 9557–9562. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1602384113  

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Changes in winter Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 climate models

Warner, M.D., C.F. Mass, and E.P. Salathé Jr.. 2015. Changes in winter Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 climate models. J. Hydrometeor, 16, 118–128, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0080.1

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Final Project Report: Regional Modeling for Windstorms and Lightning

Salathé, E.P. Jr., Mauger, G. S., Mass, C. F., Steed R., and B. Dotson. 2015. Final Project Report: Regional Modeling for Windstorms and Lightning. Report prepared for Seattle City Light by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

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Estimates of Twenty-first Century flood risk in the Pacific Northwest based on regional scale climate model simulations

Salathé, E.P., Hamlet, A.F., Mass, C.F., Lee, S-Y., Stumbaugh, M., Steed, R. 2014. Estimates of Twenty-first Century flood risk in the Pacific Northwest based on regional scale climate model simulations. J. Hydrometeorology 15(5): 1881-1899, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0137.1.

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What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

Liu, M., Rajagopalan, K., Chung, S.H., Jiang, X., Harris, R., Nergui, T., Guenther, A., Miller, C., Reyes, J., Tague, C., Choate, J., Salathé, E.P., Stöckle, C., Adam, J.C. 2014. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?. Biogeosciences 11: 2601-2622, doi:10.5194/bg-11-2601-2014.

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An Evaluation of the Utility of Fine-scale, Downscaled Climate Projections for Connectivity Conservation Planning in Washington State

Washington Wildlife Connectivity Working Group. 2013. An Evaluation of the Utility of Fine-scale, Downscaled Climate Projections for Connectivity Conservation Planning in Washington State. Washington Departments of Fish and Wildlife, and Transportation, Olympia, WA.

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Changes in 20th century extreme temperature and precipitation over the western United States from regional climate model simulations and observations

Dulire, V., Zhang, Y., Salathé, E.P.  2013. Changes in 20th century extreme temperature and precipitation over the western United States from regional climate model simulations and observations. Journal of Climate 26(21):8556-8575, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00818.1.

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Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological impacts assessments and conservation decisions

Snover, A.K., Mantua, N.J., Littell, J.S., Alexander, M.A., McClure, M., Nye, J. 2013. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological impacts assessments and conservation decisions. Conservation Biology 27(6): 1147-1157, doi: 10.1111/cobi.12163.

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ENSO anomalies over the western United States: Present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Zhang, Y., Dulire, V., Salathé, E.P., Qian, Y., Leung, L.R. 2012. To appear in Journal of Climate.

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Moisture flux convergence in regional and global climate models: Implications for droughts in the southwestern United States under climate change

Gao, Y., Leung, L.R., Salathé, E.P., Dominguez, F., Nijssen, B., Lettenmaier, D.P. 2012. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L09711, doi:10.1029/2012GL051560.

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Seasonal hydrologic forecasting: Do multimodel ensemble averages always yield improvements in forecast skill?

Bohn, T.J., Sonessa, M.Y., Lettenmaier, D.P.  2012. To appear in Journal of Hydrometeorology.

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Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario

Lee, S-Y., Hamlet, A.F., Fitzgerald, C.J., Burges, S.J. 2011. Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management137(4):309-317, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000125.

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ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: Present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Zhang, Y., Qian, Y., Dulire, V., Salathé, E.P., Leung, L.R. 2011. ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: Present and future patterns in regional climate simulations. Climatic Change 110:315-346, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0088-7.

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Extreme precipitations and temperatures over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A comparison between observations, reanalysis data and regional models

Dulire, V., Zhang, Y., Salathé, E.P.  2011. Extreme precipitations and temperatures over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A comparison between observations, reanalysis data and regional models. Journal of Climate 24(7): 1950-1964, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3224.1.

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Projected climate change over Southeast Asia simulated using a WRF regional climate model

Chotamonsak, C., Salathé, E.P., Kreasuwan, J., Chantara, S., Siriwitayakorn, K. 2011. Projected climate change over Southeast Asia simulated using a WRF regional climate model. Atmospheric Science Letters 12(2):213-219, doi: 10.1002/asl.313.

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Application of partial least squares regression to the diagnosis of year-to-year variations in Pacific Northwest snowpack and Atlantic hurricanes

Smoliak, B.V., Wallace, J.M., Stoelinga, M.T., Mitchell, T.P.  2010. Application of partial least squares regression to the diagnosis of year-to-year variations in Pacific Northwest snowpack and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophysical Research Letters 37, L03801, doi:10.1029/2009GL041478.

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Assessing Pacific Northwest water resources stakeholder data needs

Lee, C., Whitely Binder, L.C.  2010. Assessing Pacific Northwest water resources stakeholder data needs. Chapter 2 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

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Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario

Lee, S-Y., Fitzgerald, C.J., Hamlet, A.F., Burges, S.J. 2010. Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 137: 309-317, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000125.

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Data products test procedures

Elsner, M.M., Mauger, G.S., Tohver, I., Lee, S-Y., Hamlet, A.F. 2010. Chapter 9 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

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Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., Salathé, E.P.  2010. Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 29-50, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z.

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Historical meteorological driving data set

Deems, J., Hamlet, A.F.  2010. Historical meteorological driving data set. Chapter 3 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

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Overview of website design and implementation

Kamstra, T., Hamlet, A.F.  2010. Chapter 9 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

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Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Salathé, E.P., Leung, L.R., Qian, Y., Zhang, Y.  2010. Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 51-75, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9849-y.

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Statistical downscaling techniques for global climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation with application to water resources planning studies

Hamlet, A.F., Salathé, E.P., Carrasco, P.  2010. Statistical downscaling techniques for global climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation with application to water resources planning studies. Chapter 4 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

Sarachik, E.S., Cane, M.A. 2010. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.

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A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations

Weaver, C.P., Liang, X.-Z., Zhu, J., Adams, P.J., Amar, P., Avise, J., Caughey, M., Chen, J., Cohen, R.C., Cooter, E., Dawson, J.P., Gilliam, R., Gilliland, A., Goldstein, A.H., Grambsch, A., Grano, D., Guenther, A., Gustafson, W.I., Harley, R.A., He, S., Hemming, B., Hogrefe, C., Huang, H.-C., Hunt, S.W., Jacob, D.J., Kinney, P.L., Kunkel, K., Lamarque, J-F., Lamb, B., Larkin, N.K., Leung, L.R., Liao, K.-J., Lin, J.-T., Lynn, B.H., Manomaiphiboon, K., Mass, C., McKenzie, D., Mickley, L. J., O’Neill, S.M., Nolte, C. 2009. A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90:1843-1863.

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Attribution of projected changes in U.S. ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to specific global changes

Avise, J., Chen, J., Lamb, B., Wiedinmyer, C., Guenther, A., Salathé, E.P., Mass, C.F. 2009. Attribution of projected changes in U.S. ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations to specific global changes. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics 9: 1111-1124.

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Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America

Maurer, E.P., Adam, J.C., Wood, A.W.  2009. Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America. Hydrol. Earth System Sciences 13(2):183-194.

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Defining spring transition: Regional indices for the California Current

Holt, C., Mantua, N.J.  2009. Defining spring transition: Regional indices for the California Current. Marine Ecology Progress Series 393: 285-299, doi:10.3354/meps08147.

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Effects of surface forcing on the seasonal cycle of the eastern equatorial Pacific

Harrison, D.E., Chiodi, A.M., Vecchi, G. 2009. Effects of surface forcing on the seasonal cycle of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Journal of Marine Research 67(6):701-729

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Evaluation of WRF and HadRM mesoscale climate simulations over the United States Pacific Northwest

Zhang, Y., Dulire, V., Mote, P.W., Salathé, E.P.  2009. Evaluation of WRF and HadRM mesoscale climate simulations over the United States Pacific Northwest. Journal of Climate 22(20):5511-5526, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2875.1.

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Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., Salathé, E.P.  2009. Chapter 1 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

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Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

Chen, J., Avise, J., Guenther, A., Wiedinmyer, C., Salathé, E.P., Jackson, R.B., Lamb, B. 2009. Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States. Atmospheric Environment 43(36):5771-5780, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.08.015.

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Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the 21st century

Adam, J.C., Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P.  2009. Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the 21st century. Hydrological Processes 23(7), 962-972.

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Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario

Lee, S-Y., Hamlet, A.F., Fitzgerald, C.J., Burges, S.J., Lettenmaier, D.P. 2009. Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 135(6): 440-450, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:6(440).

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Pre- and post-1997/1998 westerly wind events and Equatorial Pacific cold tongue warming

Harrison, D.E., Chiodi, A.M. 2009. Pre- and post-1997/1998 westerly wind events and Equatorial Pacific cold tongue warming. Journal of Climate 22: 568-581, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2270.1.

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Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Salathé, E.P., Leung, L.R., Qian, Y., Zhang, Y.  2009. Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington. Chapter 2 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington’s Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

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Setting the record straight: Responses to common challenges to climate science

Doppelt, B., Bretherton, C.S., Mantua, N.J., Mote, P.W.  2009. White paper prepared by the University of Oregon’s Climate Leadership Initiative in partnership with the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group. January 2009.

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Simulation of the Argo observing system in an ocean general circulation model

Kamenkovich, I.V., Cheng, W., Sarachik, E.S., Harrison, D.E. 2009. Simulation of the Argo observing system in an ocean general circulation model. Journal of Geophysical Research 114, C09021, doi:10.1029/2008JC005184.

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The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

Chen, J., Avise, J., Lamb, B., Salathé, E.P., Mass, C.F., Guenther, A., Wiedinmyer, C., Lamarque, J-F., O’Neill, S., McKenzie, D., Larkin, N. 2009. The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics 9: 1125-1141.

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The response of Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate

Brown, R.D., Mote, P.W. 2009. The response of Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate. Journal of Climate 22(8):2124-2145, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2665.1.

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A high-resolution climate model for the U.S. Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change

Salathé, E.P., Steed, R., Mass, C.F., Zahn, P.  2008. A high-resolution climate model for the U.S. Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change. Journal of Climate 21(21): 5708-5726, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2090.1.

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An ensemble approach for attribution of hydrologic prediction uncertainty

Wood, A.W., Lettenmaier, D.P.  2008. An ensemble approach for attribution of hydrologic prediction uncertainty. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L14401, doi:10.1029/2008GL034648.

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Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects

Pierce, D.W., Barnett, T., Hidalgo, H., Das, T., Bonfils, C., Santer, B.D., Bala, G., Dettinger, M., Cayan, D., Mirin, A,, Wood, A.W., Nazawa, T. . 2008. Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects. Journal of Climate 21(23): 6425-6444, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2405.1.

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Characterizing the interannual variability of the equatorial Pacific: An OLR perspective

Harrison, D.E., Chiodi, A.M. 2008. Characterizing the interannual variability of the equatorial Pacific: An OLR perspective. NOAA Tech. Memo. OAR PMEL-140. Seattle, WA, 30pp.

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Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific Salmon

Schindler, D., Augerot, X., Fleishman, E., Mantua, N.J., Riddell, B., Ruckelshaus, M.H., Seeb, J., Webster, M. 2008. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific Salmon. Fisheries 33(10):502-506.

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Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States

Bonfils, C., Pierce, D.W., Santer, B.D., Hidalgo, H., Bala, G., Das, T., Barnett, T., Doutriaux, C., Wood, A.W., Mirin, A,, Nazawa, T. 2008. Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States. Journal of Climate 21(23):6404-6424, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1.

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Evaluation of precipitation products for global hydrological prediction

Voisin, N., Wood, A.W., Lettenmaier, D.P.  2008. Evaluation of precipitation products for global hydrological prediction. Journal of Hydrometeorology 9(3):388-407.

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Glestcherschwund am Kilimanjaro

Kaser, G., P.W. Mote, 2008: Glestcherschwund am Kilimanjaro. Spectrum der Wissenschaft, Januar, 62-69.

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Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States

Barnett, T., Pierce, D.W., Hidalgo, H., Bonfils, C., Santer, B.D., Das, T., Bala, G., Wood, A.W., Nazawa, T., Mirin, A,, Cayan, D., Dettinger, M. . 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science Science Express Reports 10.1126/science.1152538.

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Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

Moore, S.K., Trainer, V.L., Mantua, N.J., Parker, D., Laws, E.A., Backer, L.C., Fleming, L.E. 2008. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health. Environmental Health 7(Suppl 2): S4, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S4.

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Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales

Moore, S.K., Mantua, N.J., Kellogg, J.P., Newton, J.A. 2008. Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales. Limnology and Oceanography 53(5): 1746-1758.

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Scenarios of Future Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., Salathé, E.P., Dulire, V., Jump, E.  2008. Scenarios of Future Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle.

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The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity

Climate Change Science Program, Lettenmaier, D.P.  2008. The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. P. Backlund, A. Janetos, D. Schimel, J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, L. Hahn, C. Izaurralde, B.A. Kimball, T. Mader, J. Morgan, D. Ort, W. Polley, A. Thomson, D. Wolfe, M. Ryan, S. Archer, R. Birdsey, C. Dahm, L. Heath, J. Hicke, D. Hollinger, T. Huxman, G. Okin, R. Oren, J. Randerson, W. Schlesinger, D. Lettenmaier, D. Major, L. Poff, S. Running, L. Hansen, D. Inouye, B.P. Kelly, L Meyerson, B. Peterson, R. Shaw. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC., USA, 362 pp.

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The modulated annual cycle: An alternative reference frame for climate anomalies

Wu, Z., Schneider, E.K., Kirtman, B.P., Sarachik, E.S., Huang, B., Tucker, C.J. 2008. The modulated annual cycle: An alternative reference frame for climate anomalies. Climate Dynamics 31: 823-841, 10.1007/s00382-008-0437-z.

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Climate change and disturbance regimes in western North America

McKenzie, D., Allen, C.D. 2007. Climate change and disturbance regimes in western North America. EOS Transactions 88(21): 227.

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Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S.

Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P.  2007. Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S. Water Resources Research 43, W06427, doi:10.1029/2006WR005099.

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El Niño

Mitchell, T.P., Sarachik, E.S. 2007. El Ni&ntilde;o. pp 98-103 in Vol.6, 2007 McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Science and Technology, 10th Edition. New York, New York: McGraw-Hill Publishing.

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Is the world ocean warming? Upper-ocean temperature trends: 1950-2000

Harrison, D.E., Carson, M.  2007. Is the world ocean warming? Upper-ocean temperature trends: 1950-2000. Journal of Physical Oceanography 37(2): 174-187.

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Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground

Lemke, P., Ren, J., Alley, R.B., Allison, I., Carrasco, J., Flato, G., Fujii, Y., Kaser, G., Mote, P.W., Thomas, R.H., Zhang, T. 2007. Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. Chapter 4 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change

Trenberth, K.E., Jones, P.D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu, R., Easterling, D., Klein Tank, A., Parker, D., Rahimzadeh, F., Renwick, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Soden, B., Zhai, P., Mote, P.W. 2007. Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. Chapter 3 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (Contributing author: Mote)

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Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest

Salathé, E.P., Mote, P.W., Wiley, M.W. 2007. Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. International Journal of Climatology 27(12): 1611-1621, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1540.

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Summary for Policymakers

IPCC, Mote, P.W.  2007. Summary for Policymakers. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (Contributing author: Mote)

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Technical Memorandum #2: Methodology for Downscaling Meteorological Data for Evaluating Climate Change

Polebitski, A., Wiley, M.W., Palmer, R.N.  2007. Technical Memorandum #2: Methodology for Downscaling Meteorological Data for Evaluating Climate Change. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

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Technical Memorandum #4: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Meteorological Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control

Polebitski, A., Traynham, L., Palmer, R.N.  2007. Technical Memorandum #4: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Meteorological Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

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Technical Memorandum #7: Impacts of Climate Change on Cloud Cover in the Puget Sound Region

Alemu, E., Palmer, R.N.  2007. Technical Memorandum #7: Impacts of Climate Change on Cloud Cover in the Puget Sound Region. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

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The physical science behind climate change

Colman, R., Collins, W., Haywood, J., Manning, M., Mote, P.W. 2007. The physical science behind climate change. Scientific American 297(2): 64-71.

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The shrinking glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can global warming be blamed?

Mote, P.W., Kaser, G.  2007. The shrinking glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can global warming be blamed? American Scientist 95(4):318-325.

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The value of short-run climate forecasts in managing the coastal coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery in Washington State

Kaje, J.H., Huppert, D.D.  2007. The value of short-run climate forecasts in managing the coastal coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery in Washington State. Natural Resource Modeling 20(2):321-349.

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A decadal chronology of 20th-century changes in Earth’s natural systems

Mantua, N.J.  2006. A decadal chronology of 20th-century changes in Earth’s natural systems. In Costanza, R., L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen (eds.), Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

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A testbed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western U.S.

Wood, A.W., Lettenmaier, D.P.  2006. A testbed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western U.S. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87(12), 1699-1712, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-12-1699.

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An approach to designing a National Climate Service

Miles, E.L., Snover, A.K., Whitely Binder, L.C., Sarachik, E.S., Mote, P.W., Mantua, N.J. 2006. An approach to designing a National Climate Service. Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences 103(52):19616-19623.

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Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis

Trites, A.W., Miller, A.J., Maschner, H.D.G., Alexander, M.A., Bograd, S.J., Calder, J.A., Capotondi, A., Coyle, K.O., Di Lorenzo, E., Finney, B.P., Gregr, E.J., Grosch, C.E., Hare, S.R., Hunt, A., Jahncke, J., Kachel, N.B., Kim, H.J., Ladd, C., Mantua, N.J., Marzban, W., Maslowski, W., Mendelssohn, R., Neilson, D.J., Okkonen, S.R., Overland, J.E., Reedy-Maschner, K.L., Royer, T.C., Schwing, F.B., Wang, J.X.L., Winship, A.J. 2006. Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions <i>(Eumetopias jubatus)</i> in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis. Fisheries Oceanography 16(1): 46-67.

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ENSO’s effect on Alaska during opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation

Bond, N., Harrison, D.E. 2006. ENSO’s effect on Alaska during opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology 26(13): 1821-1841.

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Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming

Salathé, E.P.  2006. Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882, 2006.

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Summertime subtropical sea surface temperature variability

Chiodi, A.M., Harrison, D.E. 2006. Summertime subtropical sea surface temperature variability. Geophysical Research Letters 33(8), L08601, doi:10.1029/2005GL024524, 2006.

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The relationship between Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution and poleward subsurface flow in the California Current System

Agostini, V.N., Francis, R.C., Hollowed, A.B., Pierce, S.D., Wilson, C., Hendrix, A.N. 2006. The relationship between Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution and poleward subsurface flow in the California Current System. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 63:2648-2659.

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Using climate forecasts for drought water management

Steinemann, A.C.  2006. Using climate forecasts for drought water management. Journal of Applied Meteorology 45(10): 1353-1361.

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“Global Climate Change Primer”

Kay, J.E., Casola, J.H., Snover, A.K. 2005. “Global Climate Change Primer.” Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)’s October 27, 2005 climate change conference “The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption”. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

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A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States

Wood, A.W., Kumar, A., Lettenmaier, D.P. 2005. A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 110, D04105, doi:10.1029/2004JD004508.

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Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling

Salathé, E.P. 2005. Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling. International Journal of Climatology 25:419-436.

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Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter

Larkin, N.K., Harrison, D.E.  2005. Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Ni&ntilde;o autumn and winter. Geophysical Research Letters 32(16), L16705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022860, 2005.

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Hydrologic response to climate variability, climate change, and climate extreme in the U.S.: Climate model evaluation and projections

Leung, L.R., Qian, Y. 2005. Hydrologic response to climate variability, climate change, and climate extreme in the U.S.: Climate model evaluation and projections. pp. 37-44. In Wagener, T. et al. (eds), Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change – Impact Assessment and Decision Making, IAHS Publication 295.

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Implications of 2005 Climate Change Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Studies

Lettenmaier, D.P., Wiley, M.W., Hamlet, A.F., Palmer, R.N. 2005. Implications of 2005 Climate Change Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Studies. A report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

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Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Burkett, V.R., Wilcox, D.A., Stottlemyer, R., Barrow, W., Fagre, D., Baron, J.S., Price, J., Nielsen, J.L., Allen, C.D., Peterson, D.L., Ruggerone, G., Doyle, T. 2005. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications. Ecological Complexity 2:357-394.

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On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies

Larkin, N.K., Harrison, D.E.  2005. On the definition of El Ni&ntilde;o and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters 32(13), L13705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022738, 2005.

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Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S.

Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P. 2005. Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6(3):330-336.

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Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., Salathé, E.P., Peacock, C. 2005. Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest. A report prepared for King County (Washington)’s October 27, 2005 climate change conference “The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption”. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

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Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems

Mantua, N.J. 2005. Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems. PICES Press 13(1): 12-14.

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Variability and trends in mountain snowpacks in western North America

Mote, P.W., Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P. 2005. Variability and trends in mountain snowpacks in western North America. In K. Elder, B. McGurk, and J. Lea (eds.), Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, April 19-22, 2004, Richmond, British Columbia, pp. 15-22, Soda Springs, CA: Western Snow Conference.

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A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperatures

Alfaro, E., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D., Steinemann, A.C., Pierce, D., Barnett, T. 2004. A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperatures. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85: 553, 557-558.

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A simplified linear framework for interpreting patterns of Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate variability

Quadrelli, R., Wallace, J.M. 2004. A simplified linear framework for interpreting patterns of Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate variability. Journal of Climate 17(19):3728-3744.

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Analysis techniques to incorporate climate change information into Seattle’s long range water supply planning

Wiley, M.W. 2004. Analysis techniques to incorporate climate change information into Seattle’s long range water supply planning. M.S.C.E. thesis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle.

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Designing efficient observing networks for ENSO prediction

Morss, R., Battisti, D.S. 2004. Designing efficient observing networks for ENSO prediction. Journal of Climate 17: 3074-3089.

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Determining the skill of meteorological and hydrological forecasts in the Pacific Northwest

Palmer, R.N., Miller, M. 2004. Determining the skill of meteorological and hydrological forecasts in the Pacific Northwest. In Proceedings of ASCE’s 2004 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, Salt Lake City, Utah, June, 2004.

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Determining the skill of meteorological and hydrological forecasts in the Pacific Northwest

Ryu, J.H., Palmer, R.N., Jeong, S., Lee, J. 2004. Determining the skill of meteorological and hydrological forecasts in the Pacific Northwest. In Proceedings of ASCE’s 2004 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, Salt Lake City, Utah, June, 2004.

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Evaluating observing system requirements for ENSO prediction: Experiments with an intermediate coupled model

Morss, R., Battisti, D.S. 2004. Evaluating observing system requirements for ENSO prediction: Experiments with an intermediate coupled model. Journal of Climate 17: 3057-3073.

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How and why is Northwest climate changing?

Mote, P.W. 2004. How and why is Northwest climate changing? pp. 11-22 in Peterson, D.L. and J.L. Innes (eds.), Climate Change, Carbon, and Forestry in Northwestern North America. General technical report for the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

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