Publications

Washington State Wildfire Smoke Risk Communication Stakeholder Synthesis Symposium: A synthesis of the World Cafe Discussions

2019 / Climate: PNW Climate, Equity, Human Health, Wildfire

Pendergrast, C., Errett, N.A., Roop, H.A., Doubleday, A., Kramer, B., Anh Tran, K., and Busch Isaksen, T., University of Washington Wildfire Smoke Risk Communication Stakeholder Synthesis Symposium World Café Discussion Summary Report. 2019. A report prepared by the University of Washington Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, WA.

A high-resolution climate record spanning the past 17,000 years recovered from Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand

2018 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Hydrology & Water Resources

Levy, R. H., Dunbar, G. B., Vandergoes, M. J., Howarth, J. D., Kingan, T., Pyne, A. R., Brotherston, G., Clarke, M., Dagg, B., Hill, M., Kenton, E., Little, S., Mandeno, D., Moy, C., Muldoon, P., Doyle, P., Raines, C., Rutland, P., Strong, D., Terezow, M., Cochrane, L., Cossu, R., Fitzsimons, S., Florindo, F., Forrest, A. L., Gorman, A. R., Kaufman, D. S., Lee, M. K., Li, X., Lurcock, P., McKay, N., Nelson, F., Purdie, J., Roop, H. A., Schladow, S. G., Sood, A., Upton, P., Walker, S. L., and Wilson, G. S.: A high-resolution climate record spanning the past 17 000 years recovered from Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand, Sci. Dril., 24, 41–50, 2018. https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-24-41-2018

A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

2018 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Strauch, R., Istanbulluoglu, E., Nudurupati, S. S., Bandaragoda, C., Gasparini, N. M., and Tucker, G. E. 2018. A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab, Earth Surface Dynamics, 6, 49-75. https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-49-2018

Adapting forest management to climate change: the state of science and applications in Canada and the United States

2018 / Adaptation, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Halofsky, J.E., S.A. Andrews-Key, J.E. Edwards, M.H. Johnston, H.W. Nelson, D.L. Peterson, K.M. Schmitt, C.W. Swanston, and T.B. Williamson. 2018. Adapting forest management to climate change: the state of science and applications in Canada and the United States. Forest Ecology and Management 41:84-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.02.037

An Unfair Share: Exploring the Disproportionate Risks from Climate Change Facing Washington State Communities

2018 / Climate: PNW Climate, Equity, Human Health, Hydrology & Water Resources, Special Reports

UW Climate Impacts Group, UW Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, Front and Centered and Urban@UW. (2018). An Unfair Share: Exploring the disproportionate risks from climate change facing Washington state communities. A report prepared for Seattle Foundation. University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate Change and Rocky Mountain Ecosystems

2018 / Adaptation, Hydrology & Water Resources, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment, Wildfire

Halofsky, J.E. and D.L. Peterson (eds.). 2018. Climate Change and Rocky Mountain Ecosystems. Springer International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56928-4

Climate Change Implications for Grizzly Bears (Ursus arctos) in the North Cascades Ecosystem

2018 / Climate: PNW Climate, Decision Support, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Ransom, J. I., M. Krosby, and A. L. Lyons. 2018. Climate change implications for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the North Cascades Ecosystem. Natural Resource Report NPS/NOCA/NRR—2018/1814. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Climate robust culvert design: Probabilistic estimates of fish passage impediments for Washington State

2018 / Decision Support, Freshwater Ecosystems

Mauger, G.S., S.Y. Lee, J.S. Won, K. Byun, and A.F. Hamlet, 2018. Climate robust culvert design: Probabilistic estimates of fish passage impediments. Final report for the Skagit Climate Science Consortium. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Developing a GIS-based geospatial decision support tool for assessing climate change impacts on flood risks in Northern Cascadia road networks.

2018 / Built Environment, Decision Support, Hydrology & Water Resources

Strauch, R. L., E. Istanbulluoglu, R. Rochefort, Z. Duran, and K. Purnell. 2018. Developing a GIS-based geospatial decision support tool for assessing climate change impacts on flood risks in Northern Cascadia road networks. Natural Resource Report NPS/NOCA/NRR—2018/1808. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Effect of Climate Change on Flooding in King County Rivers: Using New Regional Climate Model Simulations to Quantify Changes in Flood Risk

2018 / Decision Support, Freshwater Ecosystems

Lee, S.-Y., G.S. Mauger, and J.S. Won. 2018. Effect of Climate Change on Flooding in King County Rivers: Using New Regional Climate Model Simulations to Quantify Changes in Flood Risk. Report prepared for King County. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington.

Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties

2018 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling

Goldenson, N., Mauger, G., Leung, L. R., Bitz, C. M., & Rhines, A. (2018). Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(2), 926-934. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076297

Fire enhances the complexity of forest structure in alpine treeline ecotones

2018 / Terrestrial Ecosystems, Wildfire

Cansler, C.A., D. McKenzie, and C.B. Halpern. 2018. Fire enhances the complexity of forest structure in alpine treeline ecotones. Ecosphere (2):e02091. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2091

Fourth National Climate Assessment Chapter 24: Northwest

2018 / Special Reports

May, C., C. Luce, J. Casola, M. Chang, J. Cuhaciyan, M. Dalton, S. Lowe, G. Morishima, P. Mote, A. Petersen, G. Roesch-McNally, and E. York, 2018. Northwest. In Impacts, Risks, and in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 1036–1100. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH24

Global Climate Projections, Sea Level Rise, and Extreme Precipitation: Final report to the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe

2018 / Built Environment, Climate: PNW Climate, Sea Level Rise

Mauger, G.S., K. Hegewisch, I.M. Miller, J.S. Won, C. Lynch, 2018. Global Climate Projections, Sea Level Rise, and Extreme Precipitation: Final report to the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Guidelines for Mapping Sea Level Rise Inundation for Washington State

2018 / Sea Level Rise

Norheim, R.A., G.S. Mauger, I.M. Miller, 2018. Guidelines for Mapping Sea Level Rise. Report prepared for the EPA National Estuary Program (NEP). Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Integrating chronological uncertainties for laminated lake sediments using independent chronology and layer counting in a Bayesian age modelling framework

2018 / Hydrology & Water Resources, Paleoclimate, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Vandergoes, M.J., Howarth, J, Dunbar, G, Turnbull, J., Roop, H.A., Levy, R., Li, X., Prior, C., Norris, M., Keller, E.D., Fitzsimons, S.J., Bronk Ramsey, C., 2018. Integrating chronological uncertainties for laminated lake sediments using independent chronology and layer counting in a Bayesian age modelling framework. Quaternary Science Reviews, 188, 104 -120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.015

Local Enhancement of Extreme Precipitation during Atmospheric Rivers as Simulated in a Regional Climate Model

2018 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Hydrology & Water Resources

Lorente-Plazas, R., Mitchell, T.P., Mauger, G., Salathé, E.P., 2018. Local Enhancement of Extreme Precipitation during Atmospheric Rivers as Simulated in a Regional Climate Model. American Meteorological Society, 19:1429-1446. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0246.1

Longitudinal Thermal Heterogeneity in Rivers and Refugia for Coldwater Species: Effects of Scale and Climate Change

2018 / Freshwater Ecosystems, Hydrology & Water Resources

Fullerton, A.H., Torgersen, C.E., Lawler, J.J., Steel, E.A., Ebersole, J.L., and Lee, S.Y. (2018) “Longitudinal Thermal Heterogeneity in Rivers and Refugia for Coldwater Species: Effects of Scale and Climate Change”. Aquatic Sciences, 80.3.

Looking to the Past and to Future to Inform Meadow Restoration on the Yakama Reservation

2018 / Hydrology & Water Resources, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Halabisky, M., Lee, S.Y., Hall, S.A. (2018). Looking to the Past and to Future to Inform Meadow Restoration on the Yakama Reservation. Report prepared to the Wildlife, Range and Vegetation Resources Management Program of the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington and Conservation Science Partners.

Mapping the future of flood risk for the Stillaguamish and Snohomish River

2018 / Hydrology & Water Resources

Mauger, G.S., S.-Y. Lee, J.S. Won, 2018. Mapping the Future of Flood Risk for the Stillaguamish and Snohomish Rivers. Report prepared for the Snohomish Conservation District. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

New Projections of Changing Heavy Precipitation in King County

2018 / Built Environment, Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Decision Support, Hydrology & Water Resources

Mauger, G.S., J.S. Won, K. Hegewisch, C. Lynch, R. Lorente Plazas, E. P. Salathé Jr., 2018. New Projections of Changing Heavy Precipitation in King County. Report prepared for the King County Department of Natural Resources. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Projected Sea Level Rise in Washington State – A 2018 Assessment

2018 / Sea Level Rise

Miller, I.M., Morgan, H., Mauger, G., Newton, T., Weldon, R., Schmidt, D., Welch, M., Grossman, E. 2018. Projected Sea Level Rise for Washington State – A 2018 Assessment. A collaboration of Washington Sea Grant, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, Oregon State University, University of Washington, and US Geological Survey. Prepared for the Washington Coastal Resilience Project.

Sea Level Rise Considerations for Nearshore Restoration Projects in Puget Sound

2018 / Adaptation, Coastal & Marine Ecosystems, Sea Level Rise

Raymond, C., Conway-Cranos, L., Morgan, H., Faghin, N., Spilsbury Pucci, D., Krienitz, J., Miller,I., Grossman, E. and Mauger, G., 2018. Sea level rise considerations for nearshore restoration projects in Puget Sound. A report prepared for the Washington Coastal Resilience Project.

Summary Report: Are Washington State Agencies Preparing for Climate Change?

2018 / Adaptation, Decision Support

Casola, J., 2018. Summary Report: Are Washington State Agencies Preparing for Climate Change? A summary of research conducted by Dani Ziff and Dr. Nives Dolšak, UW School of Marine and Environmental Affairs. Summary report prepared by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. https://cig.uw.edu/publications/summary-report-are-washington-state-agencies-preparing-for-climate-change/

The nature of the beast: examining climate adaptation options in forests with stand-replacing fire regimes

2018 / Adaptation, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment, Wildfire

Halofsky, J.S., D.C. Donato, J.F. Franklin, J.E. Halofsky, D.L. Peterson, and B.J. Harvey. 2018. The nature of the beast: examining climate adaptation options in forests with stand-replacing fire regimes. Ecosphere 9(3):e02140.10.1002/ecs2.2140.

Thermal landscapes in a changing climate: biological implications of water temperature patterns in an extreme year

2018 / Freshwater Ecosystems, Hydrology & Water Resources

E. Ashley Steel, A.E., Marsha, A., Fullerton, A.H., Olden, J.D., Larkin, N.K., Lee, S., and Ferguson, A. 2018. Thermal landscapes in a changing climate: biological implications of water temperature patterns in an extreme year. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0244.

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Northern Rocky Mountains.

2018 / Adaptation, Hydrology & Water Resources, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment, Wildfire

Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, S.K. Dante, J.J. Ho, L. Hoang, and L.A. Joyce (eds.). 2018. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Northern Rocky Mountains. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-374. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

2017 / Paleoclimate

PAGES 2K Consortium*. (2017). A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Scientific Data 4: 170088. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88 *Australasia writing team

Adaptive silviculture for climate change: a national experiment in manager-scientist partnerships to apply an adaptation framework

2017 / Adaptation, Decision Support

Nagel, L.M., B.J. Palik, M.A. Battaglia, A.W. D’Amato, J.M. Guldin, C.W. Swanston, M.K. Janowiak, M.D. Powers, L.A. Joyce, C.I. Millar, D.L. Peterson, L.M. Ganio, C. Kirschbaum, and M.R. Roske. 2017. Adaptive silviculture for climate change: a national experiment in manager-scientist partnerships to apply an adaptation framework. Journal of Forestry. (115)

Assessing vulnerabilities and adapting to climate change in Northwestern U.S. forests

2017 / Adaptation, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, and H. Prendeville. 2017. Assessing vulnerabilities and adapting to climate change in Northwestern U.S. forests. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1972-6

Changing Streamflow in Icicle, Peshastin, and Mission Creeks. Report prepared for Chelan County

2017 / Hydrology & Water Resources

Mauger, G.S., Lee, S.-Y., Won, J.S. (2017). Changing Streamflow in Icicle, Peshastin, and Mission Creeks. Report prepared for Chelan County. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate Change Adaptation by Washington State Agencies: Implementation and Performance

2017 / Adaptation, Theses & Dissertations

Ziff, D. 2017. Climate Change Adaptation by Washington State Agencies: Implementation and Performance. Master’s Thesis, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

2017 / Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Hydrology & Water Resources, Wildfire

McKenzie, D., and J.S. Littell. 2017. Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western USA? Ecological Applications 27:26-36. http://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1420

Incorporating climate change into culvert design in Washington State, USA

2017 / Built Environment, Decision Support, Hydrology & Water Resources

Wilhere, G., Atha, J., Quinn, T., Tohver, I., Helbrecht, L. 2017. Incorporating climate change into culvert design in Washington State, USA. Ecological Engineering (104) 67-79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2017.04.009

Incorporating Spatial Heterogeneity in Temperature into Climate Vulnerability Assessments for Coastal Pacific Streams.

2017 / Freshwater Ecosystems, Hydrology & Water Resources

Fullerton, A.H., Lawler, J.J., Lee, S.Y., and Torgersen, C.E. (2017). Incorporating Spatial Heterogeneity in Temperature into Climate Vulnerability Assessments for Coastal Pacific Streams. Final Report to the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative.

Integrating Climate Resilience in Flood Risk Management: A Work plan for the Washington Silver Jackets

2017 / Decision Support, Hydrology & Water Resources

Mauger, G.S., Kennard, H.M. (2017). Integrating Climate Resilience in Flood Risk Management: A Work plan for the Washington Silver Jackets. Report prepared for FEMA. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. https://doi.org/10.7915/CIG7MP4WZ

Maps of Climate and Hydrologic Change for the Nooksack River Watershed

2017 / Climate: PNW Climate

Morgan, H., R. Norheim, and M. Krosby. 2017. Maps of Climate and Hydrologic Change for the Nooksack River Watershed. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington.

New Projections of Changing Heavy Precipitation for the City of Everett

2017 / Built Environment, Climate: Dynamics & Modeling, Decision Support, Hydrology & Water Resources

Mauger, G.S., J.S. Won, K. Hegewisch, C. Lynch, 2017. New Projections of Changing Heavy Preicpitation for the City of Everett. Report prepared for the City of Everett. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Nooksack Indian Tribe Natural Resources Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

2017 / Coastal & Marine Ecosystems, Freshwater Ecosystems, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Morgan, H., and M. Krosby. 2017. Nooksack Indian Tribe Natural Resources Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington.

Persistence of greater sage-grouse in agricultural landscapes

2017 / Agriculture, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Shirk, A.J., Schroeder, M.A., Robb, L.A., Cushman, S.A. 2017. Persistence of greater sage-grouse in agricultural landscapes. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 81(5): 905-918. https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21268

Preliminary Climate Change Assessment for the Puget Sound Partnership

2017 / Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Siemann, D. and L. Whitely Binder. 2017. Preliminary Climate Change Assessment for Puget Sound Partnership. A Collaboration of Puget Sound Partnership and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. Seattle, WA.

Preparing Washington State Parks for Climate Change: A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Washington State Parks

2017 / Built Environment, Decision Support, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Whitely Binder, L., H. Morgan, and D. Siemann. 2017. Preparing Washington State Parks for Climate Impacts: A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Washington State Parks. A collaboration of the Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. Seattle, WA. https://doi.org/10.7915/CIG6B27QV

Stillaguamish Tribe of Indians Natural Resources Climate Change Adaptation Plan

2017 / Adaptation, Decision Support

Whitely Binder, L., H. Morgan, M. Krosby, J. Sevigny, A. Summers, and T. Neuffer. 2017. Stillaguamish Tribe of Indians Natural Resources Climate Change Adaptation Plan. A collaboration of the Stillaguamish Natural Resources Department and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. Seattle, WA.

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Blue Mountains

2017 / Adaptation, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Halofsky, J.E. and D.L. Peterson (eds.). 2017. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Blue Mountains. USDA General Technical Report PNW-GTR-939. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR.

The Winds of Change? Exploring Climate Change-driven Migration and Related Impacts in the Pacific Northwest: Symposium Summary

2016 / Adaptation, Built Environment, Decision Support, Special Reports

Whitely Binder, L.C. and J. Jurjevich. 2016. The Winds of Change? Exploring Climate Change-driven Migration and Related Impacts in the Pacific Northwest: Symposium Summary. June 24, 2016, Portland, Oregon: Portland State University Population Research Center (Portland, Oregon) and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (Seattle, Washington).

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

2016 / Wildfire

Littell, J.S., D.L. Peterson, K.L. Riley, Y. Liu, and C.H. Luce. 2016. A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States. Global Change Biology 22:2353-2369. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13275

Adapting to Change: Climate Impacts and Innovation in Puget Sound

2016 / Climate: PNW Climate, Coastal & Marine Ecosystems, Human Health, Hydrology & Water Resources, Special Reports, Terrestrial Ecosystems

The Nature Conservancy and the Climate Impacts Group. 2016. Adapting to Change: Climate Impacts and Innovation in Puget Sound. Edited by J. Morse, J. Israel, L. Whitely Binder, G. Mauger, and A.K. Snover. The Nature Conservancy, Seattle, WA. 24 pp.

Area burned in alpine treeline ecotones reflects region-wide trends.

2016 / Terrestrial Ecosystems, Wildfire

Cansler, C.A., D. McKenzie, and C.B. Halpern. 2016. Area burned in alpine treeline ecotones reflects region-wide trends. International Journal of Wildland Fire 25:1209-1220. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16025

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

2016 / Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Buotte, P.C., D.L. Peterson, K.S. McKelvey, and J.A. Hicke. 2016. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources. Journal of Environmental Management 169:313-318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.12.017

Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options for forest vegetation management in the northwestern USA

2016 / Adaptation, Vulnerability/Risk Assessment, Wildfire

Halofsky, J.E. and D.L. Peterson. 2016. Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options for forest vegetation management in the northwestern USA. Atmosphere 7,46. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7030046

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